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That is almost a 4% difference in win probability, or roughly one full point in the difference in a football spread. That one little point could be the difference between -3 and -2 in a football game, which we know is actually a huge difference. The difference is so drastic that most sharp bettors would not bet -3 and would gladly bet -2. We are making a mistake betting baseball lines by not searching for the best value or the best expected win percentage. Continue reading


